A man is given a wager. If he accepts, he can bet for a 99% chance of losing a thousand dollars to gain a 1% chance of gaining a thousand dollars.
Suppose that he takes the bet, and he wins.
Just because it worked out doesn’t mean it was a good decision.
Decisions can’t be judged after the fact. Decisions can only be judged by the information that was available at the time.
Playing a typical lottery is never strictly rational, even if you actually happen to win.
Just because something succeeded doesn't mean that the right decision was made.
Just because something failed doesn't mean the wrong decision was made.
A single outcome (or even a small set of outcomes) doesn’t necessarily prove or disprove a decision. Each outcome only decreases the uncertainty about which is the right answer. (But complete certainty is unattainable.)
We can never have complete information about the world; the best we can hope to do is pick the options with the highest probability and potential for success.
Some of the good things that happen will be the result of bad decisions. Some of the bad things that happen will be the result of good decisions.
Posted 2020 August 23, last updated 2020 December 11.
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